Somalia’s Wadajir district was still asleep when the floodwaters came. In a matter of hours, homes were swallowed, belongings lost, and families forced to flee through waist-deep water. It is a scene that has become painfully familiar across parts of Africa and small island states, where the true cost of the climate crisis is now emerging with startling clarity.
A new analysis reveals that 53 of the world’s lowest-income and most vulnerable countries have suffered an estimated $156 billion in climate-related damages since 2000. More than 364 million people have been affected by extreme weather, with 42,000 lives lost. The most heavily impacted nations include Somalia, Haiti, and Uganda.
The study, led by the think tank ODI Global, paints a sobering picture. From prolonged droughts in Ethiopia to hurricanes battering the Bahamas, climate shocks are dismantling food systems, destroying homes, and pushing millions closer to the edge of survival.
In Somalia alone, damages linked to climate change amount to $75 billion over the past two decades. What is even more alarming is that this is nearly half of the country’s total climate-related economic loss. Farmers and pastoralists, already operating on fragile margins, have seen harvests fail and herds perish.
“Every year, we see more devastation,” said Emily Wilkinson, ODI Global researcher. “Climate finance needs to increase and reach those hardest to access, because that’s where the human impact is greatest.”
While the Cop28 climate summit established a Loss and Damage Fund to support countries bearing the brunt of global heating, pledges have fallen short. Rich countries promised $768 million. Just $250 million is expected to be paid out before the end of 2026, a fraction of what is required.
Samy Ntumba Shambuyi/AP
Floodwaters submerge streets in Kinshasa.
Samy Ntumba Shambuyi/APThe Widening Economic Gap
For nations already grappling with poverty, debt, or conflict, climate impacts are compounding existing crises. On the island of Dominica, annual climate losses average 9.25 percent of GDP. In Haiti, Kenya and Grenada, that figure is above 2 percent—and that’s in non-disaster years.
Nigeria, Uganda and Ethiopia are also among the hardest hit, suffering tens of billions of dollars in agricultural and infrastructure losses. Droughts and floods have upended livelihoods across the Sahel and Horn of Africa, leading to widespread food insecurity.
With funding gaps widening, the consequences for women and children are particularly stark. In Ethiopia, the World Food Programme recently suspended nutrition programmes for 650,000 people due to a $222 million shortfall. In northern parts of the country, aid workers are already reporting starvation.
UK and US aid cuts are further stretching strained safety nets. Over 55 million people are now at risk of losing critical support. As the global temperature continues to climb—exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for 11 months last year—the frequency and intensity of these disasters are expected to rise.
A Small Window to Act
ODI Global estimates that if the planet warms by 2C, climate-related losses in vulnerable countries could jump by another $235 billion. The toll will not only be economic but geopolitical, destabilising already fragile regions and deepening inequality.
Yet within the grim statistics lies a faint glimmer of possibility.
The creation of the Loss and Damage Fund, though underfunded, signals recognition of the injustice faced by nations that have contributed the least to the climate crisis. Its proper implementation, directed towards grassroots adaptation, infrastructure and early-warning systems, could offer meaningful support to the communities most at risk.
For now, however, the story remains one of staggering disparity. Countries like Somalia are drowning—sometimes literally—under the weight of a crisis they did not cause.
The world’s wealthiest must decide whether to meet this moment with action or watch as the gap between responsibility and suffering grows ever wider.
