Disseminating Critical Climate Information
Disseminating Critical Climate Information

Climate-driven sea level rise threatens oil ports in Saudi Arabia, US

Qingdao Port, China
Qingdao Port, China

Rising sea levels driven by the climate crisis will overwhelm many of the world’s largest oil ports, according to a new analysis. 

Scientists describe the situation as ironic since the burning of fossil fuels is a primary driver of global heating. Transitioning to renewable energy could reduce emissions, halt further warming, and provide a more reliable energy future.

The study found that 13 of the ports with the highest supertanker traffic will face serious damage from just 1 metre of sea level rise. 

Particularly vulnerable are Ras Tanura and Yanbu, two low-lying ports in Saudi Arabia operated by Aramco, the Saudi state oil company. Together, these ports handle 98% of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports. Other affected ports include Houston and Galveston in the United States, as well as key hubs in the United Arab Emirates, China, Singapore, and the Netherlands.

Research by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) indicates that 1 metre of sea level rise is inevitable within the next century and could occur as early as 2070 if ice sheets collapse and emissions remain unchecked. A more catastrophic rise of 3 metres may arrive in the early 2100s, with profound consequences for global coastlines.

Sea level rise is already exacerbating problems worldwide, even before it overtops coastal infrastructure. Higher storm surges are causing increased flooding, while saltwater infiltration is damaging coastal land and corroding foundations. 

Scientists emphasise that sharply reducing emissions could slow the rate of sea level rise and limit its eventual height.

Pam Pearson, director of the ICCI, said, “It’s ironic” that the critical oil ports are “below 1 metre of sea level rise and need to have their eyes on these potentially higher rates of sea level rise” which are directly tied to continued fossil fuel use.

Sea level rise is considered one of the most profound long-term impacts of the climate crisis, reshaping coastlines and threatening major cities such as New York and Shanghai. 

However, Pearson noted that short-term government and corporate interests have overshadowed this issue. “Basic information from scientific assessments doesn’t seem to have penetrated the consciousness of governments,” she added.

James Kirkham, chief science adviser at ICCI, warned that “refusing to turn off the oil taps means keeping the taps open for sea level rise. Accelerated ice melt and ocean expansion have already doubled the rate of sea level rise in the past 30 years. Without urgent action to transition away from fossil fuels, the devastating impacts of rising seas will only worsen.”

SAUDI ARAMCO DECLINED TO COMMENT ON FINDINGS

Saudi Arabia has faced criticism for obstructing progress at recent international summits, including using “wrecking ball” tactics during the Cop29 climate assembly. 

The nation also blocked advancements in negotiations on a plastics treaty and measures to address drought and desertification, refusing to include climate-related references in agreements.

The new analysis builds on earlier research from May, which identified that 12 of the 15 oil ports with the highest tanker traffic are vulnerable to sea level rise. 

Using maps from Climate Central and Google Maps, researchers demonstrated that a 1-metre rise would damage key infrastructure, including jetties, oil storage facilities, and refineries. The updated analysis adds Yanbu, the second Saudi port, to the list of high-risk locations.

Data from Bloomberg indicates that Ras Tanura and Yanbu exported $214 billion worth of oil in 2023. Collectively, the 13 ports accounted for about 20% of global oil exports last year.

Murray Worthy of Zero Carbon Analytics, part of the research team, said the  ‘analysis shows that reliance on fossil fuels in a warming world is a path to disaster, not energy security”. He added that nations must choose between sticking with fossil fuels and facing supply disruptions as ports flood, “or transition to secure, domestic renewables.”

Building flood defences could provide temporary protection but would come at an enormous cost. Worthy described such an approach as “a losing battle” because sea walls will need to be built higher and higher over time, making long-term solutions imperative.

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